CryptoQuant’s 3 charts keeping Bitcoin’s ‘Uptober’ thesis valid

October 15, 2026 Malcolm Knoll Crypto

Bitcoin Demand Analysis Keeps BTC Price ‘Uptober’ Hopes Alive

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Written by William Suberg | staff writer Edited by Yohan Yun | staff editor

CryptoQuant’s 3 charts keeping Bitcoin’s ‘Uptober’ thesis valid

Markets

Published | Oct 14, 2026

Bitcoin onchain analysis suggests a "potential bottom" for BTC price action in early October despite external headwinds.

Bitcoin (BTC) can still maintain its historically strong October performance, according to onchain data highlighting a local BTC price bottom formation.

Key Points:

  • Onchain data suggests BTC could end October strongly, following historical patterns.
  • Bitcoin exchange reserves are 1.7% lower than mid-September, but whales have avoided selling.
  • Apparent demand is nearing a positive shift for the second time in 2026.

BTC Price Analysis Flags “Potential Bottom” Signals

New analysis published on the crypto analytics platform CryptoQuant on Monday reveals onchain conditions conducive to "cautious optimism."

Despite macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds, including:

  • 24-year highs in US bond yields
  • Rising oil prices
  • Cooling capital inflows into exchange-traded products

Bitcoin continues to show resilience.

"Now, signs of a potential bottom are emerging," wrote XWIN Research Japan, a CryptoQuant contributor.

Since the beginning of October, conditions have shifted to increasingly benefit crypto and risk assets:

  • Cooling expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes into 2027, increasing the likelihood of improved inflows.
  • Market expectations of reduced political uncertainty after the upcoming US Midterm Elections.

Bitcoin Exchange Reserves, Apparent Demand, and Whale Holdings Support October Bottom

  • Bitcoin exchange BTC reserves have fallen from 2.726 million on September 20 to 2.68 million (a 1.7% decrease) as of Tuesday, despite a recent weekly increase.

  • Large-volume investors (whales) hold over 3 million BTC, and their buying pressure has persisted despite BTC/USD dropping from $87,000 on October 2 to near $80,000 on October 8.

  • Apparent demand, a measure comparing newly mined BTC to changes in dormant supply, shows overall demand remains positive.

XWIN Research Japan concludes:

“These developments suggest conditions for a bottom are improving. Confirmation requires sustained ETF inflows, stronger US spot buying, and continued demand recovery.

‘Uptober’ need not mean uninterrupted gains: a correction can build the foundation for the next advance.”

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