US Midterms: Prediction Markets Favor Democrats in Key Crypto Races
Kalshi and Polymarket price a 75% chance of a Democratic sweep, days after markets misjudged Brazil’s runoff. As Americans head to the polls for the US midterm elections, prediction market traders have been wagering on the outcome. According to an analysis by The Washington Post, nearly $1.9 billion in election-related contracts had traded on Kalshi and Polymarket as of Monday.
Markets on both platforms favor Democrats winning control of Congress, with a Democratic sweep priced at 75% on Kalshi and 75.5% on Polymarket. Kalshi traders give Democrats a 93% chance of taking the House and a 75% chance of winning the Senate, while Polymarket prices these outcomes at 94.5% and 75.5%, respectively.
The vote comes nine days after prediction markets failed to anticipate the outcome of Brazil’s presidential election, with Flávio Bolsonaro favored at roughly 80% the day before incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won the runoff. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour cautioned that “a 5% probability doesn’t mean it won’t happen,” according to CNBC.
For the crypto industry, a shift in congressional control could impact regulatory clarity.
PAC Spending May Fall Short in Ohio
A key race for crypto has centered on Ohio’s Senate seat. Defend American Jobs, part of the Fairshake super PAC network, allocated 54% of its total expenses to supporting Senator Jon Husted and 46% opposing the crypto-critic Democrat Sherrod Brown. Fairshake spent $40 million to help unseat Brown in 2024.
Traders expect a win for Brown, with the Kalshi market predicting a 72% chance and Polymarket at 72.5%, both in line with a final New York Times/Siena poll that had him ahead 49% to 44%. A Brown victory could complicate the crypto industry’s legislative agenda, particularly if Democrats regain control of the Senate. He is identified as a potential chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee, which oversees the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
A Pro-Crypto Shift in Maine
In Maine, a Democratic win predicted by traders could expand crypto’s influence. Kalshi gives Democrat Troy Jackson a 71% chance of defeating Republican Senator Susan Collins, while Polymarket puts his chances at 71.5%, consistent with October polls that had Jackson ahead by two percentage points. Stand with Crypto rates Jackson as strongly supportive of crypto, potentially giving the industry another ally in the Senate.
Predicting the Coin Flips
While many prediction markets align with polling results, three states show clearer calls:
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In Alaska, Kalshi gives Democrat Mary Peltola a 71% chance of defeating Republican Senator Dan Sullivan, despite a final New York Times/Siena poll showing them tied at 48%. Both candidates express strong crypto support.
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In South Carolina, where candidates were tied at 48%, Kalshi gives Republican Senator Darline Graham, a crypto supporter, a 71% chance of defeating Democrat Annie Andrews.
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Iowa remains a toss-up, with Democrat Josh Turek overtaking Republican Representative Ashley Hinson on Polymarket at 52% after a recent shift.