Bitcoin Price Analysis: New Bull Market on the Horizon?
Ecosystem
English | News | Markets | Features | Research | Opinion | Podcasts | Newsletters | Commissioned | About
DOGE $0.07805 (±0.03%) TRX $0.3281 (±0.95%) LINK $11.42 (±1.45%) ZEC $1,282.73 (±2.08%) ADA $0.2049 (±1.23%) XRP $1.31 (±1.36%) ETH $2,341.23 (±0.15%) BTC $80,394.38 (±0.34%) XMR $588.87 (±0.40%) BNB $748.47 (±0.33%) XLM $0.1688 (±1.00%) SOL $100.72 (±1.59%) HYPE $79.21 (±0.72%)
Written by William Suberg, staff writer, and edited by Charles Bennett, staff editor
Bitcoin price analysis suggests a 'strong rally' as old coins become dormant.
Markets
Published: Oct 27, 2026
A decline in the share of Bitcoin's realized cap held by coins unmoved for 18 months or longer signals the "early stages" of a bull market, according to analysis.
Bitcoin (BTC) on-chain transaction data points to the beginning of a new uptrend as long-term holders retreat from selling.
Key Takeaways:
- The percentage of Bitcoin's realized cap involving coins dormant for 18 months or longer has dropped from 26.98% to 26.59% since mid-September.
- CryptoQuant analysis shows that past Bitcoin bull markets were preceded by similar reductions in on-chain activity among coins inactive for long periods.
- Coins that last moved at least five years ago account for approximately 34,000 BTC in monthly on-chain volume, half of 2024's volume.
Old Coin Dormancy: A Sign of Early Bull Market Stages
Data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant shows a decrease in activity among investors holding Bitcoin for 18 months or longer. On September 16, this cohort's share of realized cap reached 26.98%, its highest since November 2024.
CryptoQuant observes a recurring pattern:
“The pattern has always been the same: when the proportion of Bitcoin held for more than 18 months across the entire network rises and then starts to decline, a strong rally follows.”
The analysis suggests the market is in the very early stages of a bullish cycle.
Bitcoin's Drawdown from All-Time Highs: Shallowest on Record
Among long-term holders, only the 18-24 month cohort is currently in a net loss, with a cost basis of $93,193. 2026 marks the first bear market where price has remained above the 2-3 year cohort's cost basis, according to CryptoQuant.
Source: